Modelling climate change impact on water resources of the Upper Indus Basin
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Climate change has implications for water resources by increasing temperature, shifting precipitation patterns and altering the timing of snowfall glacier melt, leading to shifts in seasonality river flows. Here, Soil & Water Assessment Tool was run using downscaled temperature projections from five global climate models (GCMs) their multi-model mean estimate potential impact on balance components sub-basins Upper Indus Basin (UIB) under two emission (RCP4.5 RCP8.5) future (2020–2050 2070–2100) scenarios. Warming above 6 °C relative baseline (1974–2004) is projected UIB end century (2070–2100), but spread annual among GCMs large (+16 ?28%), even larger seasonal (+91 ?48%). Compared baseline, an increase summer (RCP8.5: +36.7%) a decrease winter were ?16.9%), with average yield nival–glacial regime flow peaking 1 month earlier. We conclude that predicted warming during spring could substantially affect flows, important supplies.
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Introduction Conclusions References
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Water and Climate Change
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2040-2244', '2408-9354']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.233