Modelling climate change impact on water resources of the Upper Indus Basin

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Climate change has implications for water resources by increasing temperature, shifting precipitation patterns and altering the timing of snowfall glacier melt, leading to shifts in seasonality river flows. Here, Soil & Water Assessment Tool was run using downscaled temperature projections from five global climate models (GCMs) their multi-model mean estimate potential impact on balance components sub-basins Upper Indus Basin (UIB) under two emission (RCP4.5 RCP8.5) future (2020–2050 2070–2100) scenarios. Warming above 6 °C relative baseline (1974–2004) is projected UIB end century (2070–2100), but spread annual among GCMs large (+16 ?28%), even larger seasonal (+91 ?48%). Compared baseline, an increase summer (RCP8.5: +36.7%) a decrease winter were ?16.9%), with average yield nival–glacial regime flow peaking 1 month earlier. We conclude that predicted warming during spring could substantially affect flows, important supplies.

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Water Resources of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

Research Reports IWMI's mission is to improve the management of land and water resources for food, livelihoods and environment. In serving this mission, IWMI concentrates on the integration of policies, technologies and management systems to achieve workable solutions to real problems—practical, relevant results in the field of irrigation and water and land resources. The publications in this s...

متن کامل

Conflicting Signals of Climatic Change in the Upper Indus Basin

Temperature data for seven instrumental records in the Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) have been analyzed for seasonal and annual trends over the period 1961–2000 and compared with neighboring mountain regions and the Indian subcontinent. Strong contrasts are found between the behavior of winter and summer temperatures and between maximum and minimum temperatur...

متن کامل

Climate Change Impact on Water Resources and Life Quality

The climate changes represent one of the major challenges in our century with major impact upon human being. This is the reason for which the study of the effects brought about by the climatic changes is one of the most current themes on international level. According to the meteorological events of the last years, Romania will be one of the most affected countries by the climate changes effect...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Water and Climate Change

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['2040-2244', '2408-9354']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.233